Rotavirus

Rotaviral infections are the leading cause of severe diarrhoeal disease among infants and young children worldwide.

In India, diarrhoea prevalence among children under five years of age declined from 9% in 2015 - 2016 to 7.9% in 2023 - 2024, while severe diarrhoea prevalence decreased from 0.7% in 2019 - 2021 to 0.5% in 2023 - 2024.^[1,2] Yet, diarrhoea remains responsible for 4.1% of child mortality in India,^[3] and with rotavirus estimated to cause 37 - 39% diarrhoeal deaths in India,^[4] it is important to understand rotavirus transmission patterns.

How we address this challenge

We use mathematical modelling to estimate disease burden and inform vaccination strategies.

• Estimate age-specific rotavirus burden.
• Assess local socio-demographic determinants of disease.
• Understand healthcare-seeking behaviours of patients.
• Evaluate vaccine dosage impact and time-to-recovery.

Ongoing work

We estimated the rotavirus burden at the subnational scale. There were six burden measures estimated: incidence, infection, cases, severe cases, death, and disability adjusted life years (DALYs). Each of these measures were computed per million population.

We have also examined how the timing of vaccine introduction and vaccine coverage influence recovery from diarrhoea and rotavirus-associated diarrhoea, generating insights that can help optimize vaccination strategies and reduce disease burden.

References

1. Varghese, T., Machathi, A., Khakha, S. A., Nair, N. P., Samarasimha, R. N., Chaudhary, V. S., Kharat, N., Samuel, P., Giri, S., Mohan, V. R., & Kang, G. (2026). Molecular epidemiology of rotavirus causing diarrhea among under-five children after the introduction of rotavirus vaccines, Rotavac and Rotasiil, into the national immunization program of India. Virology Journal, 23(1), 104.
   https://doi.org/10.1186/s12985-026-03126-0
2. International Institute for Population Sciences. (2024). National Family Health
   Survey (NFHS-6), 2023-2024: Fact sheets.
   https://www.nfhsiips.in/nfhsuser/assets/National%20Family%20Health%20Survey%20(NFHS-6)%202023-2024%20Fact%20Sheets.pdf
3. National Health Mission. (n.d.). Child health.
   https://nhm.gov.in/index1.php?lang=1&level=2&sublinkid=819&lid=219
4. Vyas, B., Patel, N., Chudasama, R., et al. (2025). Epidemiology and burden of rotavirus-associated acute gastroenteritis among children aged under 5 years in Gujarat, India, from 2020 to 2023. Indian Journal of Pediatrics, 92(Suppl 1), 62–67. https://doi.org/10.1007/s12098-025-05769-3